A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
